The national mood in Brazil is grim, following a year in which more than a million people have taken to the streets of major cities across the country to protest corruption, rising inflation and a lack of government investment in public services such as education, health care and public transportation, among other things. A new survey by the Pew Research Center finds that 72% of Brazilians are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country, up from 55% just weeks before the demonstrations began in June 2013.
Opinions about the national economy have changed even more dramatically over this one-year period. Two-thirds now say Brazil’s once-booming economy is in bad shape, while just 32% say the economy is good. In 2013, the balance of opinion was reversed: a 59%-majority thought the country was in good shape economically, while 41% said the economy was bad. Economic ratings had been consistently positive since 2010, when Pew Research first conducted a nationally-representative survey of Brazil.
Brazilians are also concerned about the impact that hosting the World Cup, which begins June 12, will have on their country. About six-in-ten (61%) think hosting the event is a bad thing for Brazil because it takes money away from schools, health care and other public services — a common theme in the protests that have swept the country since June 2013. Just 34% think the World Cup, which Brazil will host for the first time since 1950 and which could attract more than 3.5 million people to the nation’s twelve host cities, will create more jobs and help the economy.
There is also skepticism about the international benefit of hosting the World Cup. About four-in-ten (39%) say it will hurt Brazil’s image around the world while an almost equal number (35%) say it will help; 23% say it will have no impact.
These are among the major findings from the latest survey of Brazil by the Pew Research Center. The survey is based on face-to-face interviews conducted between April 10 and April 30, 2014 among a representative sample of 1,003 randomly selected adults from across the country.
The survey also finds widespread concern about rising prices: 85% say this is a major problem in the country. And at least two-thirds also say a lack of employment opportunities and the gap between the rich and the poor are very big problems.
In addition to economic concerns, large majorities also describe crime (83%), health care (83%), political corruption (78%) and poor quality schools (64%) as major problems. To be sure, these are not new challenges in Brazil. Pew Research surveys conducted since 2010 have documented similarly widespread concern with a range of social, political and economic issues, including crime, corruption and inflation. But the current level of frustration Brazilians express with their country’s direction, its economy and its leaders is unmatched in recent years.
Rousseff’s Dismal Ratings on Key Issues
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff receives overwhelmingly negative ratings for her handling of important issues facing the country. And while about half say the president is having a positive influence on the way things are going in the country, this is in sharp contrast to opinions of Rousseff’s predecessor and supporter, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in the last year of his two-term presidency. In 2010, more than eight-in-ten (84%) said Lula was having a positive impact on Brazil.
Like Lula, Rousseff receives better overall ratings from those with lower incomes and lower levels of education. But while Lula’s influence was seen in a positive light by majorities across all demographic groups, Rousseff receives negative ratings from most Brazilians with a post-secondary education (70%) and higher incomes (61%).1 Majorities of those with a primary education or less (56%) and lower incomes (58%) say the president’s overall impact on the country is positive.
Opinions of Rousseff’s handling of specific issues are far more negative than assessments of her overall influence. Clear majorities disapprove of the way the president is dealing with all nine issues tested: corruption (86% disapprove), health care (85%), crime (85%), public transportation (76%), foreign policy (71%), education (71%), preparations for the World Cup (67%), poverty (65%) and the economy (63%).
Disapproval of the president’s handling of key issues is high across demographic groups, but tends to be particularly widespread among the more affluent and more educated, as well as among those who live in urban areas.
Yet, despite her low approval ratings, the president is viewed more favorably than her main challengers in the October election, who remain less well known. Roughly half (51%) have a favorable opinion of Rousseff, who represents the Workers’ Party (PT), about double the share that say the same about Aécio Neves (27%), the candidate of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), or Eduardo Campos (24%) of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB). All three candidates have unfavorable ratings hovering around the 50% mark. Roughly one-in-four do not offer an opinion of Rousseff’s challengers.
Declining Views of National Groups and Institutions
Brazilians express far less confidence in key groups and institutions than they did four years ago. Fewer than half (47%) say the national government is having a positive influence on the way things are going in Brazil, down from 75% in 2010.
The police, already among the lowest-rated institutions in Brazil four years ago, receive even less support today. Amid reports of excessive use of police force during last year’s protests and highly publicized cases of police brutality, just 33% of Brazilians currently say the police are having a good influence on their country, compared with 53% in 2010.
Similarly, about half (49%) now say the military is having a positive impact on the way things are going in Brazil, down from the 66% that shared this view in 2010. And while the media still receives mostly positive ratings, fewer say its influence is positive than did so four years ago (69% vs. 81% in 2010).
For income, respondents are grouped into three categories of low, middle and high. Lower-income respondents are those with a reported monthly household income of less than R$900 (Brazilian reais), middle-income respondents fall between the range of R$900 to R$2,349, and those in the higher-income category earn R$2,350 or more per month. The minimum wage in Brazil is currently R$724 per month. ↩Brazilian Discontent Ahead of World Cup
Brazilians are deeply dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country. The country’s once-booming economy now receives overwhelmingly negative ratings, and concerns about rising prices, lack of employment opportunities, political corruption, crime, health care and the quality of schools are widespread.
Views about the impact of last year’s massive protests against, among other things, corruption, inflation, and lacking public services are mixed. About half of Brazilians say the demonstrations were good for the country because they brought attention to important issues, while about the same number say they were bad because they damaged Brazil’s image around the world.
Dissatisfaction with Country Direction and the Economy
Dissatisfaction with national conditions is on the rise in Brazil, with 72% expressing a negative opinion of the way things are going in the country and just 26% saying they are satisfied. Opinions were somewhat less lopsided a year ago, when a narrow majority of Brazilians (55%) were dissatisfied and 44% were satisfied with national conditions. In 2010, prior to Dilma Rousseff’s election as president, Brazilians were evenly divided.
Similarly, ratings of the country’s economy have plummeted since 2013. Only 32% now say Brazil’s economy is in good shape, compared with 59% a year ago; two-thirds of Brazilians now say the economy is bad. Prior to this year, ratings of the national economy had been consistently positive since 2010, when Pew Research first conducted a nationally representative survey of Brazil.
Positive views of national conditions and the economy have dropped by double digits across gender, age, education and nearly all income groups since 2013. This year, in almost every group, only about a third or less say they are satisfied with the way things are going in Brazil or that the country’s economy is in good shape.
Still, most Brazilians remain optimistic that economic conditions will improve in the next 12 months, although fewer say this compared with a year ago (63% in 2014 vs. 79% in 2013); 15% expect things to get worse over the next year, while another 22% say economic conditions will remain the same.
Among those who rate the current economic situation negatively, 26% expect it to remain the same and another 20% say it will be even worse in the next year, but more than half (53%) are optimistic that the economy will improve. About eight-in-ten (82%) of those who say current economic conditions are good expect them to be even better in the next 12 months.
Inflation Seen as Top Economic Problem
Despite increasing frustration with economic conditions overall, concerns about rising prices and a lack of employment opportunities are virtually unchanged from the already high levels registered a year ago. Today, seven-in-ten or more say rising prices (85%) and a lack of employment of opportunities (72%) are very big problems.
Fewer now say the gap between the rich and the poor and public debt are very big problems. Still, majorities continue to consider these very big concerns in Brazil (68% and 56%, respectively). A year ago, 75% said the gap between the rich and the poor was a major problem, while 71% said the same about public debt.
When asked which of these economic problems the government should tackle first, a 39%-plurality says addressing the lack of employment opportunities should be the priority. About a quarter of Brazilians say the gap between the rich and the poor (27%) or rising prices (25%) are the most important problems for the government to address first. Just 6% cite public debt.
Crime, Health Care and Corruption Top Non-Economic Concerns
Beyond the economy, Brazilians are also concerned about crime, corruption and other social issues. At least three-quarters say crime (83%), health care (83%) and corrupt political leaders (78%) are very big problems in their country, and 64% are equally concerned about poor quality schools.
About half describe air and water pollution (50% each), public transportation (48%) and traffic (47%) as very big problems, and somewhat fewer express similar concern about food safety (43%) and electricity shortages (35%). But three-quarters or more say each of these issues is at least a moderately big problem in Brazil.
Concerns about national problems are widespread across demographic groups. But not surprisingly, those in urban areas are far more likely than those in rural parts of the country to describe air pollution, traffic and public transportation as major challenges. At least half of those in urban areas describe each of these as very big problems (53%, 51% and 51%, respectively), compared with fewer than four-in-ten rural dwellers (38%, 30% and 34%). People in urban areas are also more likely to characterize poor quality schools, corruption and food safety as major problems.
Mixed Views of Protests
Brazilians are divided on whether the massive protests that took place across the country last year had a positive or a negative effect: 47% say the protests were a good thing for Brazil because they brought attention to important issues and 48% say they were bad because they damaged the country’s image around the world.
Support for the June 2013 protests is far more common among those with at least some college education than among those who did not attend college. About six-in-ten (62%) Brazilians who have attended college say the protests were good for Brazil, compared with 47% of those with at least some secondary education and 37% of those with no secondary education.
Young people are also more likely than their elders to offer a positive view of last year’s protests, though they too remain somewhat divided. By a 52% to 43% margin, 18-29 year-olds say the demonstrations were good rather than bad for Brazil. Among 30-49 year-olds, about the same numbers say the protests were a good thing for the country (47%) as say they were a bad thing (48%). Older Brazilians are the most skeptical about the impact the protests have had on the country: 53% of those 50 and older say the demonstrations were bad because they damaged the country’s image around the world, while 39% say they had a positive effect by bringing attention to important issues.
Brazilian Discontent Ahead of World Cup
Brazilians give President Dilma Rousseff dismal ratings for her handling of key issues, with only about a third or less saying they approve of the way she is handling corruption, crime, health care, public transportation, education, foreign policy, preparations for the World Cup, poverty and the economy. Yet, despite these low marks, Rousseff is viewed more favorably than her challengers in this October’s presidential election.
More generally, opinions about Rousseff’s overall impact are nearly evenly divided between those who believe the president is having a positive influence and those who say she is having a negative impact on the way things are going in Brazil. Four years ago, 84% said then-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Rousseff’s predecessor and supporter, was having a good influence on the country. Positive ratings of the impact of the national government, the police, the military and the media have also declined by double digits since 2010.
Widespread Disapproval of Rousseff on Key Issues
Brazilians overwhelmingly disapprove of the way their president is handling a long list of important issues facing the country. More than eight-in-ten give Rousseff low marks for her handling of corruption (86%), crime (85%) and health care (85%). Solid majorities also disapprove of the president’s performance on public transportation (76%), education (71%), foreign policy (71%), preparations for the World Cup (67%), poverty (65%) and the economy (63%).
Majorities across most demographic groups disapprove of Rousseff’s handling of key issues, but those with more education and higher incomes tend to be particularly critical of the president, as are those who live in urban areas.
For example, 69% of those with at least some post-secondary education and 65% of those with at least some secondary education disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy, compared with a narrower majority (54%) of those with a primary education or less. Similarly, 72% of those who are more affluent, 63% of those with middle incomes and 53% of those with lower incomes give Rousseff low marks on the economy.2 And while a clear majority (66%) of urban residents disapprove of Rousseff’s handling of economic issues, people in rural areas are evenly divided (51% approve and 47% disapprove).
Mixed Views of Rousseff’s Overall Influence
Opinions of Rousseff’s overall influence on the way things are going in the country are more mixed than the high disapproval ratings of her handling of specific issues, but her impact is seen far more negatively than that of Lula at the end of his presidency.
About half of Brazilians (48%) say Rousseff is having a good influence and 52% say she is having a bad influence on the country. Four years ago, 84% believed Lula was having a positive impact on the way things were going, while just 14% offered a negative opinion.
Assessments of Rousseff’s overall influence on the country vary considerably across income and education groups. Majorities of lower-income (58%) and less-educated (56%) respondents say the president is having a positive impact. Opinions of those in the middle income group and those with at least some secondary education are mixed, while majorities among the more affluent (61%) and more educated (70%) say Rousseff is having a bad influence on the way things are going in Brazil.
Rousseff More Popular than Her Presidential Challengers
Despite her low approval ratings on every issue tested, Dilma’s favorability ratings are higher than those of her two challengers in the upcoming presidential election. About half of Brazilians (51%) have a favorable opinion of their president and 49% have an unfavorable view.
In comparison, about a quarter (27%) offer a favorable opinion of Aécio Neves, presidential candidate of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), the main opposition party. More than half (53%) have an unfavorable view of the former governor of Minas Gerais, with 20% not offering an opinion.
Eduardo Campos, the candidate of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), is viewed favorably by 24% of Brazilians; close to half (47%) have a negative opinion of Campos. Nearly three-in-ten (29%) do not rate Campos, a former governor of Pernambuco. Campos’s running mate, Marina Silva, receives positive ratings from about half of Brazilians (51%), while 37% give an unfavorable rating to the former senator, who ran against Rousseff in 2010.
Brazil’s two most recent former presidents – Rousseff’s immediate predecessor, Lula, and the PSDB’s Fernando Henrique Cardoso – receive widely different ratings. Nearly four years after leaving office, Lula is viewed favorably by 66% of Brazilians. About as many (67%) offer negative views of Cardoso, who left office in 2003 after serving two terms.
Finally, Joaquim Barbosa, Brazil’s Chief Justice who presided over a major political corruption trial that led to the conviction of some of Lula’s closest advisors for fraud, money-laundering and vote-buying in 2012, is viewed favorably by 60% of Brazilians. Just 26% give a negative rating to Barbosa, who recent polls by Datafolha suggest would be a strong contender if he entered the presidential race.
Continued Support for Bolsa Família
Brazilians continue to support Bolsa Família, the anti-poverty initiative launched by Lula in 2003 and recently bolstered by Rousseff, who has announced a 10% increase in payments to low-income earners under the program. Three-quarters say Bolsa Família has been a good thing for Brazil, down slightly from 81% who endorsed it in 2010.
Bolsa Família is especially popular among those with less education and lower incomes. About nine-in-ten Brazilians with a primary education or less (89%) say the program has been good for Brazil; 76% of those with at least some secondary education agree. Opinions are mixed among those with a post-secondary education: 48% say Bolsa Família has been good and 51% say it has been bad for the country.
Among lower-income respondents, 92% support Bolsa Família, compared with 76% of middle-income respondents and 60% of those who are more affluent.
Views of National Groups and Institutions
Brazilians express far more negative views of several groups and institutions than they did four years ago. For example, 47% now say the national government is having a good influence on the way things are going in the country, down from 75% in the last year of Lula’s presidency.
The military, the police and the media also receive lower marks than they did in 2010. One-third of Brazilians now say the police are having a positive impact, compared with 53% four years ago. The military, which was viewed positively by about two-thirds (66%) of Brazilians in 2010, now receives mixed ratings: 49% say its influence is good and 50% say it is bad. And the media, while still popular – 69% say it is having a positive influence – is less so than it was four years ago, when 81% gave it high marks. Only 25% say Brazil’s court system is having a positive influence on the way things are going in the country.
The influence of religious leaders continues to be viewed positively by most Brazilians. About seven-in-ten (69%) say religious leaders are having a positive impact on the country, virtually unchanged from 2010.3
Brazilian Discontent Ahead of World Cup
Brazilians are feeling far less positive about their country’s place in the world than they did four years ago, but most still believe Brazil is or will eventually be one of the world’s leading nations. When asked about Brazil’s image abroad, about three-quarters say their country should be more respected than it currently is, but opinions about whether hosting the World Cup will improve the way the country is seen abroad are mixed.
Domestically, most Brazilians say hosting the World Cup is a bad thing for Brazil because it takes money away from schools, health care and other public services. About a third believe hosting the international competition will benefit Brazil because it will create more jobs and help the economy.
Most Say Brazil Lacks Respect Abroad
About six-in-ten Brazilians say their country is (20%) or will eventually be (39%) one of the world’s leading powers. This is down from 2010, when about a quarter (24%) said Brazil was already among the most powerful nations, with another 53% saying it would one day achieve this status. Currently, nearly four-in-ten (37%) say Brazil will never be one of the world’s leading powers, up from 20% four years ago.
Moreover, Brazilians feel their country lacks respect abroad. About three-quarters (76%) say their country should be more respected around the world than it currently is, a view that is shared by majorities across demographic groups, but especially among those with less education.
More than eight-in-ten (85%) respondents with a primary education or less say people around the world are not giving Brazil its due, compared with 75% of those with at least some secondary education and 68% of those with at least some post-secondary education.
Impact of Hosting the World Cup
Brazilians are about evenly divided on whether the World Cup will improve the country’s image around the world: 35% say the World Cup will help Brazil’s image and 39% say it will hurt. About a quarter (23%) say the World Cup will not have an impact on the way Brazil is seen abroad.
Opinions about the domestic impact of hosting this major sporting event are decidedly negative. About six-in-ten Brazilians (61%) say hosting the World Cup is bad for the country because the money spent to stage the event should be used for schools, health care and other public services. Just 34% say hosting the World Cup will be good for Brazil because it will create more jobs and help the economy.
Brazilian Discontent Ahead of World Cup
Pew Research Center
Spring 2014 Survey
The survey in Brazil was conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International.
Results for the survey in Brazil are based on 1,003 face-to-face interviews with adults 18 and older, between April 10 and April 30, 2014. Interviews were conducted in Portuguese. The survey is representative of the country’s adult population. The survey is based on a multi-stage, area-probability design, which entailed proportional allocation of interviews by region and size of municipality. The primary sampling units were municipalities.
The margin of sampling error is ±3.8 percentage points. For the results based on the full sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus the margin of error. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
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