Views of Donald Trump were already dim before The Washington Post published a video Friday showing him talking in very lewd and sexually aggressive terms about women in 2005. And the video appears to have done more damage, according to a new poll.
At the same time, the survey of the independent voters who are likely to determine this presidential race overwhelmingly say the video makes no difference to them.
What?
First, the numbers: The NBC News/Survey Monkey online poll shows that 63 percent of independent voters say the video makes «no difference» to their vote. An additional 31 percent say it makes them less likely to support Trump, the Republican nominee, and 3 percent say it makes them more likely to support him.
So more than twice as many say it’s not a negative for them. Given the wall-to-wall coverage of the video and the large movement within the GOP to get Trump to drop out, that doesn’t seem like a lot. The 31 percent could simply be the many Democratic-leaning independents who already were going to vote against him, after all.
So, no big deal? Well, not exactly. The poll also shows views of Donald Trump’s attitude toward women have taken a turn for the even-worse. And to be clear: They were already bad.
Before the tape, the NBC poll showed 64 percent of women said Trump respects women «not much» or «not at all.» Afterward: 69 percent say this.
Interestingly, the shift is actually bigger among men. While 45 percent said previously that Trump doesn’t respect women much or at all, now 55 percent say so.
Just 12 percent of women and 18 percent of men now say that Trump respects women «a lot.»
The shifts here are not monumental — and the tape doesn’t seem to have turned off large swaths of independents — but that’s at least in large part due to: 1) views of Trump overall and his level of respect for women already being pretty dim, and 2) partisanship.
Republicans, in particular, seem to be largely unmoved by the tapes, with just 12 percent saying it makes them less likely to vote for him, compared to 65 percent of Democrats. Perhaps many independent and even Democratic voters say the tape makes no difference to them because they already had a very negative view of Trump’s attitude toward women.
There’s also the matter of whether people know what actually affects their vote. Questions about whether something makes you «more likely» or «less likely» to vote for someone generally incur large «no difference» responses. People may like the idea that they are voting based on the fuller picture, and not one moment in the campaign. An online panel conducted by ABC News and released over the weekend showed a slightly higher overall «less likely» number (53 percent), but also nearly half (46 percent) saying the video made no difference to them.
In the end, the video may not be the kind of game-changer that causes a massive sudden shift in the polls. Partisanship in this country is strong, and it may be hard for Trump to fall below the 40-42 percent mark. People who like him will likely overwhelmingly stick by him.
But when it comes to a major liability in his campaign — his views of women, and women’s views of him — the tape certainly appears to have hurt him. And for a guy who not only needs to stop the bleeding but also make up ground on Hillary Clinton, that’s a very bad thing.
At the same time, the survey of the independent voters who are likely to determine this presidential race overwhelmingly say the video makes no difference to them.
What?
First, the numbers: The NBC News/Survey Monkey online poll shows that 63 percent of independent voters say the video makes «no difference» to their vote. An additional 31 percent say it makes them less likely to support Trump, the Republican nominee, and 3 percent say it makes them more likely to support him.
So more than twice as many say it’s not a negative for them. Given the wall-to-wall coverage of the video and the large movement within the GOP to get Trump to drop out, that doesn’t seem like a lot. The 31 percent could simply be the many Democratic-leaning independents who already were going to vote against him, after all.
So, no big deal? Well, not exactly. The poll also shows views of Donald Trump’s attitude toward women have taken a turn for the even-worse. And to be clear: They were already bad.
Before the tape, the NBC poll showed 64 percent of women said Trump respects women «not much» or «not at all.» Afterward: 69 percent say this.
Interestingly, the shift is actually bigger among men. While 45 percent said previously that Trump doesn’t respect women much or at all, now 55 percent say so.
Just 12 percent of women and 18 percent of men now say that Trump respects women «a lot.»
The shifts here are not monumental — and the tape doesn’t seem to have turned off large swaths of independents — but that’s at least in large part due to: 1) views of Trump overall and his level of respect for women already being pretty dim, and 2) partisanship.
Republicans, in particular, seem to be largely unmoved by the tapes, with just 12 percent saying it makes them less likely to vote for him, compared to 65 percent of Democrats. Perhaps many independent and even Democratic voters say the tape makes no difference to them because they already had a very negative view of Trump’s attitude toward women.
There’s also the matter of whether people know what actually affects their vote. Questions about whether something makes you «more likely» or «less likely» to vote for someone generally incur large «no difference» responses. People may like the idea that they are voting based on the fuller picture, and not one moment in the campaign. An online panel conducted by ABC News and released over the weekend showed a slightly higher overall «less likely» number (53 percent), but also nearly half (46 percent) saying the video made no difference to them.
In the end, the video may not be the kind of game-changer that causes a massive sudden shift in the polls. Partisanship in this country is strong, and it may be hard for Trump to fall below the 40-42 percent mark. People who like him will likely overwhelmingly stick by him.
But when it comes to a major liability in his campaign — his views of women, and women’s views of him — the tape certainly appears to have hurt him. And for a guy who not only needs to stop the bleeding but also make up ground on Hillary Clinton, that’s a very bad thing.
